In the movie, Back to the Future II, Marty, Doc, and Jennifer travel to October 21, 2015 from the year 1985. Although the movie immediately follows events at the end of the original Back to the Future, the movie itself was actually released in 1989.
The future tech in BTTF II, therefore represents a 26 year guess in to the future.
As of this writing, we just passed BTTF Day, so the future is now. Let’s see how the writers did, predicting future tech.
Table of Contents
Mr. Fusion
The “Mr. Fusion Home Energy Reactor” is apparently a portable device for turning trash in to unlimited energy, presumably through “atomic” fusion (although, that’s not ever explicitly explained).
Mr. Fusion powers the DeLorean’s time circuit, including the Flux Capacitor, requiring 1.21 gigawatts (pronounced “GI ga”, NOT “JI ga”) of power to operate. In the first movie, the time circuit was powered by a fission reactor, powered by plutonium.
Status
Not even close.
In 2015, we don’t have access to large-scale, portable power devices similar to Mr. Fusion. We don’t even have access to clean, cheap power. We still get our power from “the grid”, which is mostly fueled by coal and oil.
Analysis
Although our overall demand for power continues to increase on a per-capita basis, we continue to see a trend toward low-power devices.
Nuclear power was once believed to be safe and clean. The tidal wave that hit Japan in 2014 resulted in the compromise of one of their nuclear power facilities, and radioactive waste washed all over the seashore, causing a general re-think of how we should leverage nuclear power.
“Clean” energy sources, such as solar and wind, contribute a small fraction of energy to the grid, in spite of these technologies becoming ever more efficient.
Retrospect
In the 80’s, the concept of “cold fusion” was all the rage. Cold fusion is the concept that a sustained fusion reaction can be started “cold”, or at room temperature, using the right magnetic fields and chemical cocktail of heavy water and other ingredients.
From a technology standpoint, this turned out to be a complete dead end, but back in the 80’s everyone thought unlimited, clean energy was right around the corner.
Outlook
Although there is still general interest in nuclear fusion, a much cleaner and more efficient nuclear power source, we have yet to build a device that can create and sustain a nuclear fusion reaction.
Hydrogen fuel cell technology, which siphons energy caused by allowing hydrogen to combine with oxygen forming water vapor, is the closest thing we have to a reusable, portable power source.
Unfortunately, there is no device even close to a Mr. Fusion on the horizon.
Flying Cars
At the beginning of the movie, Doc demonstrates that in the future, he had a hover conversion done to the DeLorean, and later, in the future, we see the son of “Goldy Wilson”, the 1985 Mayor of Hill Valley, selling hover conversions.
Beyond the cool factor, flying cars would allow us to expand crowded roadways vertically, without the need for costly infrastructure.
Goldie III, and a diagram of a hover conversion:
Status
Not even close.
Our driving pursuits are still very much Earthbound.
Analysis
Hovering requires either strong electrical fields, or high-speed ducted fans, either of which require tremendous amounts of energy. The kind of energy that you’d need a Mr Fusion device to provide.
Retrospect
Anyone who grew up in the 1980’s watched “The Jetsons” cartoon on TV every Saturday, and the concept that “cars will fly in the future” became embedded in our expectations.
Outlook
We are just now seeing the dawn of self-driving cars, smart roads, and Traffic Network Information Systems (TNIS) that will make driving less stressful, safer, and more efficient.
We are also seeing an explosion of the use of drones – pilotless quadcopters and other devices that DO have the ability to hover. Drones suffer from a short battery life, and most require active input from the remote control in order to do something useful. Although automated drones do exist, there are concerns around safety and collision avoidance.
Unfortunately, in spite of all of these cool advances in transportation technology, we are still worlds away from flying cars.
Metallic Sunglasses
Doc is seen wearing metallic “sunglasses”.
Even though it’s raining, we see him deliberately lower his glasses over his eyes, so we can only speculate…
The sunglasses have a microphone attached, and they are an artificial reality device, similar to the oculus rift, allowing him to see either a computer-enhanced image, or an information overlay, or both, while allowing “hands-free” communication.
Today, we use BlueTooth wireless technology, allowing headsets, earbuds, and in-vehicle speakerphones for hands-free communication.
Later, on the way to Marty and Jennifer’s house, we see Doc concentrate on his “glasses” as he proclaims that he thought he saw a taxi following them, confirming that the shades are in fact an AR device.
Doc’s Knock-Out Device
Jennifer is asking too many questions about the future, so Doc uses his knock-out device to put her to sleep for a while.
Status
We don’t have this YET.
Analysis
Doc explains that the device is a “sleep-inducing, alpha rhythm generator”, essentially putting the subject in to a deep sleep.
Retrospect
I suspect that this was a convenient plot device.
Outlook
Scientists are currently conducting experiments in mind manipulation using magnetic fields.
Barcode License Plates
As the DeLorean lands in Hill Valley, 2015, we see that the license plate is a barcode, similar to the ones used by the supermarket or the postal system.
The thought process is that the police, and possibly other drivers, would have a device that scans this barcode, and looks up information about the vehicle owner.
The writers definitely guessed correctly, that the future would bring increasing connectedness, and huge, central databases that store all sorts of information, not just vehicle registrations.
In 2015, most of us have smartphones – tiny computers that we carry around with us, that are always connected to the internet. We could use the barcode scanner on our cell phones to read this.
The problem is that not everyone has a smart phone, and license plates are used for more than just traffic stops.
People don’t remember barcodes… license plates contain a unique label using letters and numbers that people CAN see and remember. This is critical when writing out an accident report, or being witness to an accident or a crime.
Rather than using barcodes in 2015, the police employ software that can read license plates!
In the UK, police cars and key traffic junctions constantly scan and read license plates, and if the registered owner has a warrant, the system pops up an alert automatically.
So, this was a nice touch, but highly impractical.
The Weather Service
Doc looks expectantly at his watch, as the rain stops, and remarks, “It’s too bad the Post Office isn’t as reliable as the Weather Service!”
This implies that the government controls the weather, and has a “weather program”, that presumably creates even weather cycles.
Status
Not even close.
Ironically, even though we have learned more about the weather, and we’ve gotten better at predicting things about the weather, we still completely suck at predicting the actual weather.
Analysis
We have satellites and radar that can show in ever greater detail what the weather is doing right now, and computers that can attempt to model, or predict, what the weather will be doing shortly.
We also have tools that can detect cloud rotation, giving us a few more minutes of advanced warning for tornadoes and other destructive weather phenomenon.
Retrospect
Weather control seems futuristic.
Outlook
There may be secret weather control experiments that have been going on for years, conducted by both the US and Russia, using intense sound or magnetic fields. This falls in to the “conspiracy theory” category…
Fusion Industries and Recycled Laserdiscs
As Marty steps out of the DeLorean, in to Hill Valley of the future, we see two interesting things.
Fusion Industries
We see a big machine of some sort, labeled “Fusion Industries”, with the same logo as Doc’s “Mr. Fusion” on the back of the DeLorean. This implies that the device is a larger, industrial-sized fusion generator, and that “Fusion Industries” is the primary supplier of these devices.
Bundles of Laserdiscs
We see bundles of laserdiscs, that appear to be staged for recycling.
In the 80’s laserdiscs provided a higher-quality alternative to VHS tapes, and could store digital information in addition to video and audio data.
This made laserdiscs the first true “multimedia” format, where you could buy a movie on laserdisc, watch the movie, listen to digitally-encoded sound, and then look at production stills taken while the movie was being made.
Laserdisc didn’t survive as the dominant optical standard, as it was replaced by DVD, an all digital format, in the late 90’s, and again by Sony’s proprietary Blu-ray format in the late 2000’s.
Interestingly, you can’t recycle optical media, unless you have a Mr. Fusion handy! Millions of “AOL trial” CDs from the early 90’s are buried in landfills all over the country.
Rejuvenation Clinic
As doc tears a latex mask from his face, he explains to Marty that he had gone to a rejuvenation clinic, and had a litany of procedures done, in order to become much younger than his chronological age.
Status
We don’t have this, YET.
Analysis
There are many “anti-aging” remedies, as well as spas and treatments that are available, but none of these have been scientifically proven to have an “anti-aging” effect.
People don’t want to consider their own mortality, and that makes many people vulnerable to “anti-aging” scams.
Retrospect
The first successful organ transplants and stem cell research were brand new science in the 80’s, and the limits of medical technology were expanding every day.
A “rejuvenation” process seems like a logical outcome.
Outlook
Here in 2015, there are some amazing things on the horizon.
- 3D printed organs, where you could have a custom replacement heart, liver, kidney or lungs built from scratch using a computer to create a lithograph of an organic matrix, in to which, cells are either grown or cloned, forming the new organ.
- Science has finally started to understand the chemical and biological process of aging, and there is a plethora of research focused on further researching this process, as well as practical applications.
- As medical science continues to improve, we learn what we SHOULD do, and what we SHOULD NOT do with our bodies, which keeps us healthier, much longer.
Futuristic Nike Bag
As Marty takes off his shirt, Doc turns a dial on what appears to be a futuristic gym bag, bearing the Nike “swoosh”.
I don’t know what this is or why we would even need it!
26 years later, and gym bags are still made out of cloth, and close using a zipper.
I WOULD say that the one main difference, is that the gym bag of today is very likely to contain a special padded pocket for your smartphone or tablet.
Digital Binoculars
Doc scopes “Marty Junior” with his digital binocs, which has a “people tracker” feature, and displays an information overlay at the bottom.
Status
We have those!
We have digital binoculars, that provide information overlays that include position and distance. We also have digital cameras that feature face tracking, inside a green rectangle that closely resembles Doc’s binocs.
Analysis
Cameras and binoculars work in a very similar fashion, and employ similar technology.
Single Lens Reflex (SLR) devices have an optical pathway, and use a small LCD and a prism to project a computer-driven overlay on top of the image.
CCD devices use an electronic sensor to capture the image, which is then processed by the computer, and displayed to the user on an LCD screen.
Cameras, more than binoculars, have face tracking, allowing the camera to ensure that people’s faces are in focus when taking a picture.
Retrospect
In the 80’s, only high-end military gear had heads-up displays (such as those on jet fighters), or computerized information overlays.
The writers correctly guessed that an explosion of smaller, cheaper, faster computers would result in the ability to computerize or automate just about everything.
Outlook
Beyond face tracking, full-blown facial recognition is now working its way in to the consumer domain. This creates an entirely new set of applications, such as doors that unlock when they recognize you.
Facebook allows you to “tag” other people in photos, and eventually, it can tag them automatically.
Self-Lacing Shoes
Marty puts on the shoes handed to him by Doc. As he inserts his foot, the shoes automatically adjust.
Not only that, but we see “NIKE” light up, on what appears to be an LED panel.
Status
The movie made it happen.
Just before BTTF Day, Nike announced a self-lacing version of the the Nike Mag, that will go on sale in the Spring of 2016. The first pair was presented to Michael J Fox.
Analysis
Tiny motors are powered by a rechargeable battery, which adjust the various tension bands (or, “laces”), as well as the ankle support.
Retrospect
In the 80’s there were only a couple of kinds of sports shoe. Anything that wasn’t a boot or dress shoe was basically called a “tennis shoe”, and was used for tennis, running, climbing, etc…
The 80’s was a time of intense innovation for just about every industry. In shoes, we saw the advent of velcro laces, which seemed super-futuristic at the time.
The movie BTTF II actually spurred even greater innovation, such as the Reebok Pump, that would come out about a year after the movie.
Throughout the 90’s we continued to see new shoe designs that incorporated new materials, special impact-absorbing zones, lights, wheels, and all sorts of new features, as the various shoe companies struggled to differentiate themselves.
In 2015, there is basically at least one specialized style of shoe for every sport. There is a separate shoe for running vs. jogging. There are separate shoes for basketball, tennis, and every other sport. In some cases, there are different shoe designs for ONE sport, based on how you play, or what position you play. A good shoe weighs almost nothing, because it’s built from composites, rather than employing leather and metal stiffeners, and the materials are all super light-weight synthetics.
Outlook
Price, popularity, and market influence remain to be seen.
Self-Adjusting Jacket
Marty dons the jacket given to him by Doc, then remarks that it doesn’t fit. We hear the jacket beeping urgently, as Doc approaches…
We see a blinking tab on the lower corner of Marty’s jacket. Doc presses the tab, and the jacket self-adjusts:
In a hokey 80’s synthesized voice, the jacket proclaims “size adjusting…..fit”. We see the arms, shoulders, and chest automatically shrink to fit Marty.
Later, we see the jacket “auto dry” after Marty goes for a dunk in the pond.
Status
Not even close.
Jackets are still jackets. They are still made of leather, cloth, and synthetics, and close using zippers and snaps.
Analysis
Self-adjusting clothing would be heavy and expensive. Unless you plan to get caught in the rain frequently, having a built-in blow dryer would be even heavier, and would waste power and other resources.
We see Marty Jr. experiencing a wardrobe malfunction! Obviously, the advanced mechanism in the self-adjusting jacket is subject to the occasional failure!
Retrospect
This jacket is an extension of the shoes.
I think the writers correctly projected that embedded computers would find their way in to almost every aspect of modern technology — just NOT in this manner.
Outlook
Smart fabrics already exist, that have sensors and even LEDs built in. They can sense the environment, track your temperature and blood pressure, change shape to some degree, or even change color. At this point, they are still very new, and very expensive.
The police and military wear tactical gear that adjusts using velcro strips — this is much more efficient.
The self-adjusting jacket appears to be the solution to a problem that just doesn’t exist.
A Pepsi is 50 Bucks
Doc hands Marty a $50, and tells him to order a Pepsi
Runaway inflation?
Status
Hasn’t happened YET.
A Pepsi at a restaurant, in 2015 costs about $2
Analysis
In the mid 1980’s gasoline was cheap – around $1/gallon. The economy ran on gasoline, and still does. In 2001, gas prices jumped dramatically, to $3 or more, and just this year (14 years later), gas has finally dropped below the $2/gallon mark.
If gas prices increase, it costs more to travel, and to deliver goods and services, which in turn, causes prices to increase.
In 1980, you could purchase a Pepsi, or any software beverage at a restaurant for about $1.
Retrospect
Runaway inflation was a serious danger in the 1980’s, and it still is, today.
Outlook
We’ve seen significant turmoil in the past two decades. Ultimately, if the dollar becomes worthless, we’ll go back to trading services and commodities, also known as a barter economy.
Is the $50 Pepsi impossible? Not completely, but if the dollar is so worthless, it’s highly likely we would switch to an alternate currency.
In the 80’s Retro Cafe, Marty Jr. orders a “Pepsi Perfect”. In 2015, we absolutely DO have Pepsi Zero, and a variety of other variants based on combinations of caffeine and sugar, all started by the “New Coke” debacle of the 1980’s. Coca Cola corp quickly relented, releasing “Coke Classic” (or, coke the way coke was coke before Coke changed it in to something that WASN’T coke).
USA Today, and Newspapers in General
Doc shows Marty tomorrow’s USA Today paper (in 2015)
Yes, USA Today is still alive and kicking, but all printed media is on the decline.
Some newspapers have managed to adjust to the information age, while others are simply on life support, having died a decade earlier, and they just don’t realize it yet.
Even for the ones that have managed to survive, circulation is way down, in favor of online access. Where you used to see rows of newspaper machines 10 deep, you might see 1 or 2.
Speedy and Fair Trial
Marty reads the article, indicating that, within 2 hours, Marty Jr. was tried, convicted, and sentenced to 15 years in the state penitentiary.
Doc notes that justice works swiftly in the future, especially since they abolished all lawyers.
Status
Not in this lifetime.
I’ll spare everyone the rant, and leave it at that.
Future Cars
Future cars seem to be of two varieties.
The first type are conventional cars that have gone through a hover conversion, as we see on this police car:
These are obviously 1980’s-era, square and boxy vehicles, and we’re NOT seeing any hover conversions of the 1990’s “bubble” cars, because they didn’t exist yet.
The second type of vehicle you see are 2015 current-generation vehicles:
The future car looks almost exactly like a 2015-era Toyota Prius
Pac Fax?
As Marty emerges in to the world of 2015, he walks past a Pac Fax box.
Here is a closer look:
We see what appears to be a video terminal, with some buttons on the front and a spool on the back, bolted on to the side of a mailbox.
I’m guessing that “Pac Fax” means “Pacific Fax”, like “Pacific Bell”, the west-coast phone service in the 1980’s was known as “Pac Bell”.
My best guess is that this is a public fax terminal.
In the 1980’s, fax seemed futuristic, but it was eclipsed by e-mail in the late 90’s.
Futuristic Building
On the right, we see a futuristic building.
The design is similar to the Dallas, TX City Hall building, which was built in the early 1980’s, and was renowned for its innovation:
This isn’t the first time this building design has been used as a stand-in for a futuristic design. Robocop (1987) fans might recognize the Dallas City Hall building as the base of the OCP headquarters building, with extra floors added via CGI:
Texaco
Marty is amazed by an automated Texaco, that speaks in a crappy 80’s synthesized voice, and uses a robot to provide full service.
The concept of “full service” disappeared prior to the 80’s because it was simply too expensive. Self service became the norm.
There absolutely isn’t any reason why we COULDN’T use robots to provide self-service, and I’m all for it, but there doesn’t seem to be very much demand for it.
One possibility is that the robots would be expensive to maintain, and could fail often.
The complexity is also compounded by the fact that we, as a society, have failed to standardize the location of the gas tank filler tube. Some cars have them on the driver’s side, while others have them on the passenger’s side. As far as I’m concerned, I should NOT have to walk all the way around the car in order to fill my gas – there should be ONE standard, and it should be located on the driver’s side.
We DO have automated car washes…
Jaws 19
Marty gets “attacked” by a holographic shark in front of a theater featuring the movie, Jaws 19.
There are a couple of interesting points here:
- 3D technology, in general
- Serial franchise movies
Holographic Displays
The animated hologram that attacks Marty is viewable without special displays, eye wear, or other devices, and is viewable in daylight.
Status
Not today, but not far-fetched.
We do NOT have holograms that can be viewed without a special display, eye wear, or other device.
Current 3D technology can’t be viewed in daylight.
Analysis
In 2015, there are four basic holographic display technologies.
- Red / Blue Anaglyph, that uses color separation for each of the two channels required to see in 3D. Viewing requires red / blue glasses, designed to isolate the channels.
- Polarized 3D, that uses a polarization bias between the two channels required to see in 3D. Viewing requires two lenses that are each polarized with a different bias, separating the two channels.
- Shutter 3D, that uses LCD lenses which alternate between the two channels very rapidly, and are synchronized by an infrared pulse. These use very expensive glasses that run on rechargeable batteries.
- Parabolic 3D, that uses a parabolic mirror to reflect what appears to be a floating image.
Most animated holographic technologies that are available today rely on conventional displays that are difficult to see in daylight.
We DO have several consumer-available 3D technologies, including 3D movies and television that require special glasses, and hand-held games, smart phones, and other small-scale devices that rely on a special display and limited viewing angle.
By today’s standards, the CGI shark looks completely lame, but who’s to say that the extra resources required for “true 3D” might not limit polygon count, anti-aliasing, texel mapping, and other advanced image processing techniques.
Retrospect
In the 1980’s, the height of 3D technology was the red / blue anaglyph.
You’d buy your 3D glasses at 7-11, and then watch your TV on Friday night, for a special movie broadcast in 3D. Movie theaters that showed 3D movies used the same technology.
In the late 90’s, movies began to use polarized 3D.
3D has always been a popular concept, but wasn’t available in the home until the advent of LCD displays. With high frame rates, LCD displays are capable of quickly switching between the left-eye image and the right-eye image, and relies on synchronized LCD glasses that alternately block the inactive eye.
Conventional home 3D now uses alternating pixel rows that have biased polarization, to implement polarized 3D, using the same inexpensive lenses that are used or 3D rides and movies.
In 2010, Nintendo released the 3DS, a hand-held console utilizing a multi-layer LCD that implements the 3D effect, but only within a limited viewing angle.
Other 3D hand-held devices implemented 3D using the same multi-layer LCD technology.
In the 1980’s 3D was “the wave of the future”.
Outlook
New 3D displays are being designed every day, utilizing rapidly-rotating LCD displays, cold steam curtains, sonic pulses, laser interferometry, and the like.
Serial Franchise Movies
We DO have serial franchise movies.
At the time this movie was made, there were 4 Jaws movies – fortunately, that’s ALL the Jaws movies that were made.
The Jaws franchise is an in-joke, because the Executive Producer of BTTF 2 was Stephen Spielberg, who directed the original Jaws movie. Jaws 19’s director is listed as “Max Spielberg” – perhaps, one of Stephen’s descendants.
We have seen MANY serial horror / slasher franchises:
- Friday the 13th: There were 10 proper Friday the 13th films. 9 of those featured Jason – remember that part 1 featured his mother! In addition, there was a Freddy vs. Jason crossover, and a 2009 reboot, for a total of 12 “Friday” movies, of which 11 featured Jason.
- Nightmare on Elm Street: There were 6 proper Freddy movies, followed by Wes Craven’s New Nightmare (featuring Freddy), Freddy vs. Jason, and a reboot in 2010, for a total of 9 Freddy movies.
- Saw: 8 Jigsaw movies, with another on the horizon.
- Halloween: The mother of all slasher movies, there were 8 proper Halloween movies, plus a reboot and its sequel, for a total of 10 movies.
- Hellraiser: There have been 11 movies featuring Pinhead as its protagonist.
There have been many others.
Consumers vote with their dollars… when something turns out to be insanely popular, it’s easy to cash in with a sequel, and then another.
It’s not unrealistic that we COULD have seen a Jaws 19!
Antique Shop
Marty walks by an antique shop…
We see quite a few artifacts from the 70’s and 80’s…
Obviously, the 90’s hadn’t happened yet…
Later, this is where Marty buys the sports almanac, that Old Biff gives to Young Biff, who wins a bunch of money gambling, legalizes gambling, kills George McFly (Marty’s dad), and creates the alternate 1985.
In the alternate 1985, history reveals that Biff had an incredible winning streak. In BTTF physics, anything from the future that gets altered by the past is “updated”. So, even though Biff inevitably altered the future, and influenced the original timeline, even causing some formerly-winning team to lose, the almanac would always represent “the current state of affairs”, offering Biff the winning bet at each turn, even if the outcome wasn’t the one from the original 1985 timeline.
We see a Macintosh prominently displayed in the window – The Mac was released in 1984, and revolutionized the way we interact with computers. Of course, Jobs stole it from Xerox, and then Gates stole it from him…
In 2015, we still have Mac, and we still have Windows. Xerox hasn’t made a PC in over 20 years.
80’s Retro Cafe
Marty meets Biff in the 80’s Retro Cafe…
In 2015, the 1980’s is definitely “retro”, and very popular.
Status
Confirmed!
Analysis
Three decades have passed, and now we watch 80’s retro.
I think what started 80’s retro was the “Rick Roll” meme… A video of Rick Astley singing “Never gonna give you up”. In the late 2000’s, the year 1980 was a distant mystery, until people started sending each other links to Rick Astley saying, “Hey, check this out”. A couple of years later, the 1980’s are cool again.
In the 80’s Retro Cafe, we see robot bar waiters / bar tenders, with animated 80’s icons, on a Max-Headroom-like framework.
Max Headroom was a 1980’s meme, who started life as a prank, got a commercial, and ended up with his own syndicated TV show.
Max was a supposedly-computer-generated being, and due to “low resolution” exhibited glitches.
As the camera pans, we see Pac Man, Exerbikes, and a roving terminal / menu thingy.
In 2015, there are very many Pac Man tributes.
In 2015, there are exercise fanatics, and there have even been fictional works that are based on “human energy”, such as The Matrix.
As Marty takes a seat, his “retro waiter” is Ron Reagan, who is quickly subverted by the Ayatollah Colmeany
(yes I didn’t spell it correctly… that was on purpose. I have google, I could have spelled it correctly, but… you know…. the guy is kind of a dick, and mis-spelling his name feels good, so here we go)
In the 80’s, Reagan didn’t leave ANYTHING on the table. Whether the Russians or the fanatic arabs, Reagan’s word was law.
That is, until we found out that the U.S. government was trading arms for hostages, and… GUESS WHAT??? The terrorists (ghasp!) LIED. They didn’t release the hostages as agreed, and demanded more weapons. It only took us THREE WHOLE TIMES to fall for this before we stopped giving them more weapons.
Marty stares at his Pepsi
In the 1980’s, soda (including Pepsi) came in cans, glass bottles, or paper cups, such as the “Big Gulp” from 7-11. In the 90’s, we saw the advent of plastic bottles, but they don’t look anything like the faux glass that Marty’s holding.
Later, we see his daughter with a Pepsi, and you can see that there is a straw embedded in the cap, that flips up.
This is a great idea, and we have drink bottles similar in design, but you can’t buy them with Pepsi in them. This is one of those things that we SHOULD have, but don’t!
After Griff tells “Marty” to stay put, he demonstrates how to play a light gun game. The kids rebuke him with the concept that “games where you have to use your hands are for babies”.
(Note: Surprising to all of us, the kid on the left will eventually grow up to play Frodo Baggins)
In 2015, we have XBox Kinect and Playstation Move, that use YOU as the controller. However, most games are still played with a conventional controller. The good news is that most modern game systems employ wireless controllers, so you’re no longer stretching cables all over the living room.
Light guns of the 1980’s depended upon the fact that CRTs (Cathode Ray Tubes) scan each line, so the light gun would measure the time between the trigger pull, and the corresponding scan pulse, to determine the X, Y location. Most of these won’t work with an LCD or Plasma display, because there is no scan “blip”.
Modern gun “sweps” rely on motion controllers and other advanced concepts.
Retrospect
In the 80’s, we didn’t know the word “retro”, but it was commonly understood that anything cool would eventually be cool again, 10 or 20 years later.
In the 80’s, the 60’s was “retro”, even though we didn’t have a word for it.
Outlook
In another few years, the 90’s will be “retro”. I can’t …. wait…. (By “can’t wait”, I mean, “Please kill me”.)
Griff’s Bionics / Cybernetics
Griff has bionic and / or cybernetic implants.
As Marty stands up to Griff, his cybernetic enhancements become apparent.
In 2015, we DO have all sorts of modern prosthetics, but there are no bionic nor cybernetic enhancements.
Hoverboard
Marty attempts to repeat history, reliving his 1955 victory over Biff, by acquiring another skateboard in an attempt to allude Griff.
Marty is confounded by what he discovers…
Status
Not Even Close.
This is the “Holy Grail” of BTTF tech.
Analysis
Hover car and hover board technology must be closely linked. We see two pods on the bottom of the “Mattel” hoverboard. This implies that the hover effect is electromagnetic. Again, this would require a tremendous power source, even by 2015 standards.
Retrospect
During production, the director, Robert Zemeckis made an off-hand comment that “hoverboards run on magnetic energy. The technology has been around for years, but parents groups haven’t let toy manufacturers make them”. The Mattel logo appears on the BTTF 2 hoverboard… Mattel was flooded with calls asking them to make a real hoverboard!
Outlook
Drone technology is our best prospect. Drones use four or more rotors to produce a geostabilized hovering effect. It’s possible that large-scale drones could be the prototypes for hoverboards.
To prove this out, some dude built a hoverbike using drone technology.
Everything we know today is based on ducted fan (rotor) technology. We don’t know (yet) how to use magnetic fields to create levitation.
Cubs Win World Series
Who cares!
Portable Point of Sale Terminal
The guy who harasses Marty for a donation is holding a portable Point of Sale terminal.
We see what appears to be a small, wireless device, with a fingerprint reader. The man asks Marty for a $100 donation…
Later, we see Old Biff pay his cab fare using his thumbprint, on the same device.
Status
We have these!
Portable POS terminals use either the cellular network, or a WiFi (Wireless Ethernet) signal to establish a data connection to the credit card processor.
Analysis
When the buyer swipes his card, the portable POS sends the card and card-holder information to the processor via either the mobile or wireless network, and the transaction is approved in realtime.
Outlook
Credit card fraud is abundant, and the credit card issuers seek increasingly secure measures to prevent theft and fraud.
Biometrics, the use of fingerprints and other unique physical attributes, is increasingly considered to be the ultimate solution to fraud.
The problem is that biometrics are inaccurate, and can easily be forged.
Robot Trashcan
Doc attempts to dispose of the sports almanac…
A robot trash can meanders by…
Status
True, but unusual.
Analysis
I’ve seen a few robot trash cans, in places such as Disney’s Epcot. They are not useful, thus, they are not widely deployed. They are expensive, and are probably subject to frequent breakdowns.
Outlook
Not a high-demand technology.
Biometric Recognition
The police discover 1985-Jennifer asleep in the back alley. They use a portable, hand-held terminal to obtain her identity and address.
Doc explains that they used her thumbprint to assess her ID.
Status
Very true.
Biometrics are in wide use, mostly using fingerprints for authentication.
Beyond fingerprinting, facial recognition is used by all major governments and casinos, to detect “banned” players who might enter the casino, or potential terrorist threats.
Analysis
Mythbusters has completely debunked fingerprint recognition. Likewise, most forms of biometric recognition can be easily forged.
Biometrics are shoddy and dangerous. They provide an approximation that can easily be counterfeited, and computers can be easily be fooled.
Biometrics are good at providing an early warning, such as when a known threat enters a controlled space, but they can be easily fooled by using head covers, infrared emitters, or face scarfs.
It’s 2015 – you can actually print someone else’s face on to a scarf, and wear THAT scarf over your own face! All of this can be done for about $100 or less.
Then, there’s the case of the man in Singapore who got car-jacked. When the thieves found out that his Mercedes had a fingerprint identification system, they took his finger! The bad news for both parties, is that the Mercedes was equipped with an INFRARED fingerprint scanner, meaning, the finger had to be alive in order to work. The ignorant thieves cut off the businessman’s finger, assuming they needed it, and I’m sure the businessman didn’t expect to lose his finger that day.
Outlook
The public has an irrational craze with biometrics, so we will see more pervasive use of them.
Biometrics provide the illusion of security, without any real basis.
Seeing Yourself / Touching Yourself Creates a Time Paradox
Doc explains that, at best, seeing yourself could put you in to shock. At worst, it could create a paradox that destroys the universe.
After saying this, Doc encounters himself in 1955 at the clock tower, with no ill effect for either of them.
Likewise, Old Biff steals the almanac and confronts his 1955 counterpart.
We’ve already seen that BTTF physics are “self-correcting”. Since Young Jennifer is the time traveler, she should expect to see her future self (it’s at least a viable notion to Young Jennifer). She even mentions this before Doc knocks her out. Meanwhile, Old Jennifer’s past has already been altered. She would already know that when she was Young Jennifer, she had traveled to the future – she even knows exactly what day: October 21, 2015. Therefore, neither of them would be surprised to see each other – actually, Old Jennifer would expect to see Young Jennifer, because she remembers it from when SHE was Young Jennifer.
As to the “paradox that destroys the universe”, the risk would be the same interacting with any matter, not just your future self.
Road Condition Advisories
Before heading to Marty and Jennifer’s house, Doc consults a skyway condition sign…
This information billboard provides traffic information, along with ozone conditions, weather, and other information.
We absolutely DO have these in 2015. We also get realtime traffic information on our smart phones!
In the early 2000’s we did start having “ozone alert” days.
Fingerprint Lock / Intercom
The police drop Young Jennifer off at her house, thinking she’s Old Jennifer. They use her thumbprint to open the door.
As we cut to a wider angle, we see that the thumbprint lock is part of an AT&T camera intercom console.
Status
We have all of this, and more.
- Fingerprint locks have been out for 10 years.
- We have video intercom systems. We also have wireless video baby monitors, and full-blown camera systems that record to a DVR.
- We have locks that you can open from your smartphone, anywhere in the world, and camera systems that you can access from your smartphone, anywhere in the world.
Voice Activated Home Automation
As the police bring Jennifer in to the house, they make a comment about the lights, and when Jennifer sleepily mumbles “lights”, we see the lights turn on.
Status
SOME of us have this, and it’s right around the corner for everyone else.
- Home automation kits have been available since the late 90’s, that employed wireless remotes and other sensors, with a programmable hub that carries out the automation.
- The smartphone era has seen a resurgence of home automation, where the smartphone is the controller.
- Devices such as the Amazon Echo, are voice-driven smart appliances that can be cloud-integrated with home automation using custom scripts, and cloud integration provided by services such as If This Then That (IFTTT)
Right now, the equipment is expensive, and you have to be very technical, in order to make it work properly.
As the equipment becomes cheaper, and the automation becomes less complicated, we’ll see the market continue to grow.
Scenery Channel
As Young Jennifer looks around her future abode, we see that there is a fake window, which declares itself to be “the Scenery channel”.
Later, we see Gramma Lorraine complain that the window has been broken for a while, and she remarks that it’s worn out. She “rolls up” the display.
Status
Although we don’t use flat panel displays to replace windows, we absolutely do have “digital scenery”
- There are multiple mood / ambiance DVDs available to play on your TV, such as waterfall, fireplace, etc…
- There are streaming sites that offer digital scenery
- You can get live wallpaper for your laptop or smartphone
In today’s technology, the window shade would have to be a rear projection. On the horizon, flexible OLED screens may be able to behave like a display and a window shade, but today, they are still expensive and fragile.
No Door Knob!
Young Jennifer desperately tries to open the front door, but she can’t find the doorknob. Later, Doc explains that the door opens using her thumbprint.
In 2015, we do have automated doors and locks, but the technology isn’t considered reliable enough to not have manual controls as a backup.
For example, what if the power fails? The device has to have a backup battery, and even then, it must have some kind of bypass procedure.
Ugly Daughter
Michael J. Fox plays his own daughter. Michael J. Fox makes an ugly lady.
Hover Inversion Device
George “hovers” in to the McFly abode, attached to a hover inversion contraption, for his back.
We don’t have hover technology in 2015, but inversion devices have been around since the 1980’s, and many people swear by them.
Dehydrated Pizza
Gramma Lorraine brought a dehydrated pizza (in a tiny package), to which Marty’s daughter replies, “who’s going to eat all that?”
Here’s a close-up of Gramma Lorraine opening the packet, a few minutes later.
Here it is, on the tray before being “re-hydrated”:
Gramma Lorraine tells the Black & Decker “Hydrator” to “Hydrate Level 4”:
Here’s our hydrated pizza:
We do have dehydrated foods in 2015, but, as in the 1980’s we eat them in dehydrated form, and they mostly consist of jerky, grain, and fruits.
We see a similar concept in The Fifth Element, where Lelu is seen “rehydrating” a chicken.
We don’t have this concept yet, but we DO have tons of microwave foods, which were just becoming popular in the 1980’s.
Notice that even the toppings are very tiny, and expand proportionally. It’s more realistic to think that the whole pizza might “inflate” during hydration, and THEN you add the toppings.
We do still have Pizza Hut, but you still have to order it. The good news is that you can order pizza on the internet – a concept that wasn’t even possible in the 80’s! Moreover, you can download an app and use your smartphone to order pizza over the internet. Moreover, you can download the “Pizza Hut” app, and order FROM Pizza Hut, USING your smartphone, OVER the internet! That’s 2015!
In 2015, Black & Decker kind of sucks. They are a very cheap, low-end brand, and the stuff they make breaks easily. Read my coffee rant, for my full opinion of Black & Decker.
Hanging Garden
When a button is pressed, a hanging garden descends from the ceiling.
We don’t have pull-down gardens as elaborate as this, but there is a whole knowledge area around upside-down gardening, which is a very space and cost-efficient way to grow fresh fruits and vegetables.
Flat Panel Display
Marty Junior comes home, and “sets up” his flat panel display by voice-requesting six channels.
Status
Almost there.
We absolutely do have flat panel displays that look like picture frames – they are thin and light.
Voice control is right around the corner.
We see Marty watching six channels simultaneously… NO one does that. Some displays support Picture In Picture (PIP), but not multi-channel PIP. Usually, the user is watching one channel in the smaller window WITHOUT audio, while watching a second channel WITH audio.
Robot Dog Walker
Marty exits the DeLorean in HillDale, where he witnesses a hovering robot walking a dog.
Status
We don’t have this YET, but it could be right around the corner.
In 2015, we’ve seen an explosion of drones, and a drone could easily be programmed to walk the dog.
VR Goggles
As Old Marty pours Marty Jr. something to drink, we see Marty Jr. wearing a VR headset.
Status
We have this!
The Oculus Rift, still on the high-end of the consumer market, is considered by many to be the first “consumer-accessible” VR headset.
Analysis
There have been many attempts to produce consumer-accessible (cheap, easy to use, widely-available) VR gear. In the past, there have been some fairly significant barriers to entry:
- High cost – until recently, the components were very expensive, meaning the shelf cost was very high
- Bulky and Heavy – until recently, the components were bulky and heavy, and couldn’t be worn comfortably
- Awkward – newer models have self-contained components that don’t require tons of cables interconnecting them.
- Slow – older technology had lag and low refresh rates
- Complex – there were very few units commercially available, and thus there was very little support. The average consumer required a high technical knowledge to effectively use the product
In recent years, all of these barriers have been overcome, coupled with renewed interest in “AR” (Artificial Reality), which blends VR and “real” images.
Retrospect
In the 1980’s, Virtual Reality was the new hot thing, but required quite a bit of equipment and computing power to operate. VR “pods” were the size of a telephone booth. Today, all of the sensors, displays, encoders, batteries, etc. have been miniaturized, and weigh so little that they fit right in the headset.
Outlook
There is a ton of interest in the Oculus Rift, which is still considered “high-end” from the consumer standpoint. The gear is expected to get cheaper, faster, and better over the next few years.
Picture Calls
We hear a phone ring, and on the display, we see “Incoming Call”.
Marty answers the call:
We see that Needles is calling him, because his name is displayed…
Status
We have this.
It’s called Skype. You can use Skype on any smartphone, tablet, or laptop, and even on some smart TVs.
Analysis
The whole solution requires several components in order to work:
- Microphone and speaker, to record and play back voice data
- Camera and display, to record and play back video
- High, full-duplex bandwidth, to transmit voice and video data
- Codecs (COder / DECoder) are algorithms that compress audio and video data, making them more efficient to transmit
- A directory service is required, so that you can “look someone up” and call them. This also facilitates making point to point calls, as the directory would map the endpoint location.
Retrospect
AT&T has had a video phone since 1969. Due to poor quality, and high bandwidth requirements, it wasn’t a commercial success.
AT&T re-launched the video phone as a picture phone in the 1970’s – it would display a PICTURE of the caller, rather than full-motion video. Due to high costs, again, this product wasn’t a commercial success.
In the 1980’s you could purchase closed-circuit, video intercom systems, but that type of solution wouldn’t allow dialing arbitrary endpoints.
Proprietary videoconferencing systems have been available since the 1990’s, but they are bulky, and support only a few endpoints.
The advent of the internet allows arbitrary point-to-point traffic, and the proliferation of consumer broadband internet provides the infrastructure required for transmitting realtime voice and video data.
Meanwhile, every smartphone and tablet, and all modern laptops have a microphone, camera, speaker, and display. As time progresses, these components become cheaper, lighter, and more efficient.
Outlook
Skype is incredibly popular with soldiers overseas, or with people who have immigrated to the US, and have relatives in a foreign country. For $300, you can get a tablet, set up Skype for free, and actually see and hear your loved ones overseas.
Video calling is incredibly popular, and there are now, many services that you can use for free or little cost.
As time progresses, these solutions will get faster, cheaper, and more efficient.
Credit Card Terminal / Point to Point Transactions
After a dare from Needles, Marty swipes his credit card…
The credit card scanner appears to pop out of Marty’s briefcase from earlier. The funds go straight to Needles.
There are two interesting aspects:
- Portable credit card terminal, allows Marty to originate a transaction (presumably, securely)
- We see a point-to-point transaction, where Marty sends Needles the funds directly
Portable Credit Card Terminal
This is one of those things that ABSOLUTELY SHOULD exist, but doesn’t. When we purchase things online, we spend 10 minutes typing in our name, address, and credit card information. A portable “card swipe” would be tremendously useful!
When the World Wide Web originated, all we had was Hypertext Markup Language (HTML). With eXtensible Markup Language (XML), we can represent any object, using an HTML framework. This means that the industry could and should adopt a “virtual credit card” object standard. Instead of storing credit card data on thousands of websites, it could be scanned ad-hoc when needed, and then erased after the transaction completes.
Identity theft is a huge market in 2015 – eliminating extraneous copies of credit card data could be a huge step toward controlling identity theft, because credit card data is hacker-bait.
Point-to-Point Transactions
Like the “Western Union” of the internet, you can use Paypal to send money to another person, to use for a money escrow in support of ensuring buyer / seller promise, or as a checkout mechanism to purchase goods and services online.
Paypal has been so hugely successful, many financial services companies have copied the concept, where you can basically send someone an e-mail with money attached to it.
Future AT&T
As the call ends, we see the AT&T logo
AT&T is still alive and kicking, in 2015…
Fired by Fax
As Marty gets canned, we see “You’re Fired” pop up on the display, and he receives multiple fax messages stating the same.
Here we see that Marty’s house has multiple fax machines:
In 2015, no one uses Fax, except the Federal Government. Fax was surpassed by e-mail in the late 1990’s.
Which raises another interesting question: Has anyone been fired by e-mail? Unfortunately, you hear horror stories from time to time of people being fired by e-mail, text message, and even Facebook.
Recreational Hovercraft?
As Doc leaves the McFly property, we see what appears to be a hovercraft in the driveway.
Status
No, we don’t have those.
Future Bicycle
As Doc and Marty carry Young Jennifer from the McFly residence, we see a “future bicycle” in the driveway, a couple of houses down.
Surprisingly, this does resemble an “ultramodern” 2015 racing bike:
In 2015, bicycle design is about power-to-weight ratio and aerodynamics.
Conclusion
As we watch BTTF 2 in 2015, and compare modern reality to the fictional 2015, we definitely see some interesting things.
There are some things we were sure would happen, and didn’t, such as cheap fusion.
There are some things that we hoped would happen, and didn’t, such as flying cars and hoverboards.
There are some things that should exist but don’t, such as personal credit card terminals, and soda drink bottles.
We see many references to fax machines, which are an anachronism today.
Surprisingly, there are also some things that the movie got exactly right, such as digital cameras, wireless point of sale terminals, Skype, flat panel televisions, Oculus Rift, and home automation.
Overall, the writers didn’t do that bad, considering that any guess 26 years in to the future is basically as random as a coin toss. You can see that they did an excellent job taking 1980’s trends and continuing the concepts forward.
There are some technologies, such as the internet, that are completely disruptive, could not have been predicted in the 80’s, and have actually created other technologies. For example, smartphones wouldn’t be practical without the internet!
Overall, all three BTTF movies are very entertaining, and the writers did an excellent job.
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